From Hamilton to Norris: when a retirement can decide a world championship

When with seven laps remaining in yesterday's Dutch Grand Prix, Lando Norris' McLaren stuttered to a halt at the side of the track with a power unit problem, it revived memories of almost nine years ago on 2 October 2016 and the Malaysian Grand Prix at Sepang. Over the radio, a cry of despair from Lewis Hamilton as his engine broke on lap 41 up to which point he was out in front. Instead of moving ahead of his team-mate Nico Rosberg to lead the world championship, the Englishman dropped 23 points behind the German, who finished third behind the Red Bulls of Daniel Ricciardo and Max Verstappen. Rosberg pulled even further ahead a week later, with a win in Suzuka, while Hamilton was third behind Verstappen. It was to be Nico's last ever Formula 1 win. Over the remaining four races that season, Rosberg simply shadowed Hamilton to the flag as Mercedes secured a quartet of one-two finishes. Come the end of the year, only 5 points separated them, meaning the Sepang retirement for Hamilton was really costly. Because apart from the disaster in Barcelona where the pair collided and retired, they finished all the other 19 races in the points.

In Norris' case in Zandvoort, it looked like he was doing a good job of damage limitation running second to team-mate Oscar Piastri, but there's a big difference between turning up in Monza 19 points down or having to deal with the actual and much bigger deficit of 34 points. Especially when your opponent has exactly the same technical equipment, with none of the other teams looking likely to mix it with them, given that the pecking order for the rest of the year is pretty much fixed, as everyone's attention turns to 2026. There are nine rounds remaining, three of them being Sprints with 33 points on offer, which means Oscar can allow himself a no-score and still not lose the lead in the standings. Lando's challenge is still possible but maybe not probable, although Formula 1 has witnessed even more unlikely reversals of fortune. In 2012, Fernando Alonso was leading Sebastian Vettel by 42 points after the Hungarian Grand Prix with nine races remaining, but he ended up losing the title by three points.

The statistics show what a solid season Piastri is enjoying. The Australian is the only driver to have finished all 915 laps of all Grands Prix and has always been in the points, something he has done for the past 33 races, going back to Imola last year. The only two drivers who have ever done better are Hamilton, 48 consecutive races and Verstappen on 43. The only possible advantage Norris might have is that he now has nothing to lose, needing to make up an average of four points per race, which is possible if unlikely.

In theory he could throw caution to the winds in any of the inevitable duels the pair will have from Monza onwards, on track and strategically. Lovers of racing and indeed, their rivals on track, would very much like to see that, in the hope maybe of a repeat of Barcelona 2016. However, that's an unlikely scenario given how McLaren has managed the rivalry between its two stars so far. The pragmatic approach of the papaya team does not leave much room for improvisation which is as it should be.