Macroeconomic Risks


2013 Outlook:



The year 2013 should confirm a macroeconomic scenario still characterised by a high degree of uncertainty mainly due to the evolving debt crisis in the Eurozone and in the United States of America. In particular:

  • EUROPE: RECOVERY EXPECTED IN 2014
    Restrictive tax policies, a deteriorating labour market and unfavourable credit conditions will weigh down on consumer confidence. This element, combined with uncertainty surrounding the global economy, might delay economic recovery until 2014.
     
  • UNITED STATES: THE DEBT CRISIS IS IMPERILLING RECOVERY PROSPECTS
    As already been seen in late 2012, evolution of the debt crisis will play a key role in defining the prospects for economic recovery in the United States. Although its economic fundamentals have recently improved, inefficient management of the debt ceiling and possible public spending cuts might undermine growth prospects in 2013.
     
  • CHINA: HARD LANDING LESS LIKELY
    The latest business cycle data show that the Chinese is recovering while the risk of a hard landing is fading, due partly to the recent change in government leadership. In spite of these unequivocally positive developments, it is unlikely that China will return to its pre-2012 growth rates in the short term. The government’s need to balance economic growth with the risks related to the shadow banking system, coupled with a still timid external outlook, is likely to lead to an overall 2013 GDP growth rate of around 7.5%.
     
  • SOUTH AMERICA: ECONOMIC GROWTH EXPECTED
    The Latam region is expected to grow, mainly on the back of a likely acceleration of the Brazilian economy (expected to grow in the 2%-region), after the disappointing 2012 performance. However, the regional tendency of massive state interference on the currency market and in foreign trade, combined with the recently disappointing performance of the Brazilian economy, leave room for uncertainty.
     
  • • RUSSIA: DECELERATION EXPECTED VS 2012
    In 2013 the economy of the Russian Federation:is expected to decelerate in comparison with the GDP growth rate seen 2012, on the back of a slowdown in exports (reflecting cautious forecasts of global growth) combined with a deceleration in consumer spending, which nonetheless should still be confirmed as one of the principal drivers of economic growth. A return to pre-crisis growth rates is not forecast until 2014.
     

Last Revised: 17 Mar 2014