MARKET RISKS ARISING FROM CHANGES IN DEMAND


In 2010 and 2011 the tyre sector enjoyed growth rates that allowed it to make up the ground lost between 2008 and 2009, in consequence of the global economic crisis. The tyre market contracted slightly in 2012 from its 2011 level, with a severe decline in Europe that was offset by robust growth in the Asia Pacific region and positive growth rates in Russia, North America and South America.

For 2013, the global car market is foreseen at 1,327 million pieces, 20 million fewer than estimates made last March, entirely attributable to the European replacement market, where the macro-economic context has worsened compared with expectations at the beginning of the year. The decline in is European volumes is estimated at 1/3 in Premium replacement and 2/3 non-Premium replacement. The focus on Premium will allow for an amplification of growth compared with non-Premium by 3 times and mitigate to a third the decline in the event of a decline in total tyre market demand. In total, the Premium segment at the end of 2013 represents over 13% of the global car market with the percentage growing in emerging markets to over 8%, in the Nafta area to over 13% and in Europe to over 24%.

The global truck market is estimated at around 134 million pieces, with a reduction compared with the March estimate of around 2 million pieces. Compared with prior indications, growth has been reduced from +4.8% to +3.2% essentially because of mature markets where growth is estimated at below 1% (market of 35.5 million pieces) compared with 5.3% indicated previously (37 million pieces). Emerging markets substantially confirm previously indicated growth, +4.2% to 98 million pieces.

Last Revised: 11 Jun 2013