Key european stock market indices were mixed in the week from the 23rd to the 27th of January, 2012 (Milan +2%, London +0.1%, Frankfurt +1.7%, Paris -0.1%). According to the IMF, world GDP growth in 2012 will be slower than anticipated (+3.3% vs 4% previously), and Eurozone GDP will contract by 0.5%. The US Federal Reserve stated the intention to keep benchmark interest rates at the current low levels until 2014, and added that other stimulus measures are still on the table. In the bond market, the spread between Italian BTPs and German Bunds narrowed by approx. 100bps, after the successful outcome of Italian sovereign debt auctions (3y Ctz yield down to 3.76% from 4.85%).

Within the Auto & Parts sector (European index up 1.1% vs Stoxx 600 -0.2%), Auto OEMs and Parts producers outperformed, thanks to positive US durable goods data. Tyre stocks were weak, including Pirelli which ended the week down 1.9% at €7.08, in line with peers. According to brokers Exane, Equita and Intermonte, Pirelli will hit 2011 profitability targets notwithstanding the softness in Q4 volumes; attention now turns, according to Intermonte, to H1 2012 sales which should be sustained by the low level of summer tyre stock held by dealers.

European stock markets advanced in the week from the 16th to the 20th of January 2012 (Milan +4.1%, London +1.6%, Frankfurt +4.3%, Paris +3.9%). Investors reacted positively to the newsflow around the Euro sovereign debt crisis, such as the strenghtening of the EFSF (worth $500 bln), the possible conclusion of the negotiations between Greece and private sector creditors and the increase in Euro-area bond purchases by the ECB in the secondary market (€3.7 bln). Over the week, the spread between Italian BTPs and German Bunds narrowed significantly.

Auto & Parts stocks were up strongly: sector index Stoxx posted a +8.9% increase over the week, as broker Goldman Sachs affirmed the attractiveness of the sector while upgrading Pirelli to Buy rating and increasing its Price Objective to €14.3 (from €9.4), making it the highest in the coverage universe. Pirelli closed the week up +9.6% at €7.22

Pirelli Investor Relations

The banking sector (Stoxx banks -2.7%), recorded the worst weekly performance discounting the possibility of the need for new resources to address the crisis in the eurozone.

Good performance for Auto&Parts (+6.4% the Stoxx index) thanks to the December car registrations data, particularly in Germany and Brazil.

Pirelli closed the week at € 6.7 with an increase of 3.2%. Cheuvreux included Pirelli stock among the 7 Italian Top Picks in 2012 while Merrill Lynch has confirmed the view on the stock and upgraded the TP to € 6.5 from € 5.8.

European stocks reported gains in the last week of the year, from the 26th to the 30th of December 2011 (Milan +0.4%, London +3.4%, Frankfurt +0.8%, Paris +2.9%). Over the week, markets benefited from the successful outcome of important Italian sovereign debt auctions, although yield differencials are still high and suggest caution. 2011 yearly performance is however still negative, with most European indices reporting double digit losses.

Auto & Parts stocks performed below market, with the European sector index losing 1% in the week, particularly due the Auto OEM segment. Pirelli, in line with the index, was down 1.1% in the week, closing at €6.505, up 7.5% over the year 2011.

The Auto & Parts sector underperformed the market; sector index Stoxx was down 1.6%, following the previous week’s rally.

Pirelli shares were down 1.8% in the week, closing at €6.825 with an average daily volume of 3.9mln units.

A strong increase for the auto sector: the DJ Stoxx Auto rose by 13.7%.

Pirelli stock closed the week at €6.95, +9.9% gain, with a daily average of 4.91 mln stocks exchanged.

Fears about the macro scenario and the sovreign debt influenced negatively international markets (Milan -8.5%, London -3.7%, Frankfurt -5.3%, Paris -4.7%) during the week from the 21 September to the 25 September.

The Auto & Parts sector was down 6.9% with sales on all stocks.

Pirelli closed the week at €6.33 (-5.5%), outperforming the auto&parts sector (+1.4pp), and its main peers.
Six upgrades on the stock: Morgan Stanley (€10 from €7.5), Banca Imi (€9.32 from €7.4), Deutsche Bank (€9.0 from €8.0), HSBC (€8.5 from €8.2), Société Générale (€8.2 from €7.3) and Banca Profilo (€8.0 from €7.2).
According to Morgan Stanley Pirelli is their top pick among tyre & suppliers: it is unlikely that any other stock can match its potential for such acceleration in profitability and earnings growth. The margin improvement included into the New Industrial Plan – defined a Game Changer – is worth up to +100% the current stock price. Better estimates for the 2012-14 period: 2012: ROS 11.4%, EPS €0.89; 2014 ROS 14.3%, EPS €1.3.
The average consensus Target Price is €8.56€ with BUY recommendations from 92% of brokers.

Sustantially stable the auto&parts sector wich increased by 0.5%.

Brilliant performance by the Pirelli stock, which closed the week at €7.16 (+14.5%, +14pp vs auto&parts and +11.7pp vs FTSE Mib), with high volumes (7.5mln the weekly average vs 5.3mln monthly average). The market favorably welcomed the Industrial Plan 2012-14, which was presented by Pirelli’s Top Management in London on the 9th of November.
6 target price upgrades (RBS 9.0€ from 7.5€, Intermonte 9.0€ from 7.50€, Fidentiis range 9.0-9.4€ from 8.3-8.5€, Exane 9.0€ from 8.5€, Chevreux 8.9€ from 8.2€, Mediobanca 8.0€ from 7.0€). Targets are ambitious and above consensus estimates, but feasible given a clear strategy, a consolidated business positioning on premium and a solid track record of delivering results.